PROGNOZIROVANIE PRIBYLI PREDPRIYATIYA S POMOSCH'YU MUL'TITRENDOVOY MODELI
Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
The method proposed by Davnis V.V., was applied for income forecast of Kazan Helicopters Joint Stock Company. The method is based on the joint use of autoregressive model with dummy variable and the model of the expert preferences. A combined model allows to build the forecast with the help of the probability distribution of the trajectories of multitrend model.

Keywords:
прогнозирование, мультитрендовая модель, мультиномиальная логит-модель, авторегрессионная модель, forecasting, multitrend model, multinomial logit (MNL) model, autoregressive (AR) model
References

1. Pervadchuk V.P. Matematicheskaya model' prognozirovaniya finansovogo sostoyaniya predpriyatiya / V.P. Pervadchuk, I.B. Masenko // Vestnik OGU. - 2007. - №77. - S. 181-190.

2. Aksyanova A.V. Prognozirovanie pokazateley razvitiya social'no-ekonomicheskoy sfery regiona / A.V. Aksyanova, Yu.V. Hayrutdinova // Vestnik Kazanskogo tehnologicheskogo universiteta. - 2011. - № 20. - S. 305-311.

3. Davnis V.V. Prognoznye modeli ekspertnyh predpochteniy: monografiya / V.V. Davnis, V.I. Tinyakova. - Voronezh: Izdatel'stvo Voronezhskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta, 2005. - 248 s.

4. Valeev N.N. Teoriya i praktika ekonometriki / N.N. Valeev, A.V. Aksyanova, G.A.Gadel'shina. - Kazan': KGTU, 2010. - 302 s.: il.

5. Davnis V.V. Prognoz i adekvatnyy obraz buduschego / V.V. Davnis, V.I. Tinyakova // Vestnik VGU. - 2005. - №2. - S.183-188.

6. Oficial'nyy sayt Kazanskogo vertoletnogo zavoda www.kazanhelicopters.ru.

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