We propose a way of expanding the number of one-year time series of forest fires by identifying stable wave functions of annual statistics on forest fires in the territory of the Republic of Mari El in the period of 17 years from 1995 to 2011. Detail the technique of wavelet analysis to estimate the level of factor closely notes due in polynomial biotech patterns identified with a serial polynomial complexity of their designs in the software environment CurveExpert identification of stable laws .
лесные пожары, количество, динамика 1995-2011 гг, закономерности, прогнозная модель, импульсы численности 2014 и 2017 гг, forest fire, number, dynamics since 1995-2011 year, laws, the forecast model, the number of pulses in 2014 and 2017
1. Respublika Mariy El: Statisticheskiy ezhegodnik // Territorial'nyy organ Federal'noy sluzhby gosudarstvennoy statistiki po Respublike Mariy El. Yoshkar-Ola: 2004. 342 s.
2. Pozhar ot spichki. V respublike goryat lesa // AIF v Mariy El. Regional'noe prilozhenie. №29(482). 18-24 iyulya 2012 g.
3. Fakticheskaya ploschad' lesnyh pozharov v Rossii v vosem' raz prevyshaet oficial'nye cifry. http://expert.ru/2012/07/31/legche-skryit-chem-borotsya/ (Data obrascheniya 19.12.2012).
4. Mazurkin P.M. Biotehnicheskiy zakon i vidy faktornyh svyazey // Uspehi sovremennogo estestvoznaniya. 2009. № 9. S.152-156.
5. Mazurkin P.M., Poryadina O.V. Ekonometricheskoe modelirovanie: praktikum. Yoshkar-Ola: MarGTU, 2009. 204 s.
6. Mazurkin P.M., Filonov A.S. Matematicheskoe modelirovanie. Identifikaciya odnofaktornyh statisticheskih zakonomernostey: Uchebnoe posobie. Yoshkar-Ola: MarGTU, 2006. 292 s.
